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Over the coming years, we can expect a greater debate in civic, academic and political spaces about how digital life is changing our society. Prateek Raj.
Whether or not citizens have an expectation of privacy by voluntarily using a technology is a legal issue and part of a social contract. For privacy issues, legislation and fines with lots of zeros should have a positive effect.
For the issue of cybercrime, what is not covered in legislation could be addressed by cyberinsurance. We lived in a relatively unregulated digital world until now. It was great until the public realized that a few companies wield too much power today in our lives. We will see significant changes in areas like privacy, data protection, algorithm and architecture design guidelines, and platform accountability, etc.
These steps will also reduce the power wielded by digital giants. Beyond these immediate effects, it is difficult to say if these social innovations will create a more participative and healthy society. These broader effects are driven by deeper underlying factors, like history, diversity, cohesiveness and social capital, and also political climate and institutions.
In other words, just as digital world is shaping the physical world, physical world shapes our digital world as well. Either law and public opinion will place protections that are good enough to satisfy most of the populace, or privacy as a concept will change as a matter of values. They will realize that they can make more money by properly serving the subpopulation, gather more data about them, and voila, algorithmic bias gone.
Then there will remain biases due to differences in true base rates, and those we will argue about for decades. There will be pockets of success, and valuable insights will emerge to deal with such issues beyond the next decade or so. Digital and socioeconomic divides, whatever and wherever they are, are still too great for me to be optimistic about their overcoming between now and As people worry about false and misleading information and its place in their online feeds and societal discourse , a number of these experts believe steps will be taken to address this issue.
Some think change will come from better educating the public about digital and technology literacy; others expect digital tools to be a mainstay of the campaign against weaponized information. This will partially mitigate the problem.
Organized efforts to support this will develop in response to realization about the extent and danger of manipulation. These efforts will take root in countries with traditions of freedom. However, totalitarian countries will increasingly veer toward more manipulation and control rather than less, because their bosses, whose powers will be enhanced by technology, will increasingly be able to suppress the compensatory mechanisms free and healthy societies will develop.
Educational institutions should teach people how to recognize manipulations and manipulative techniques when they occur. No one wants to be manipulated and that will help free societies develop defenses against such destructive forces. Soon, we will be able to fact-check speeches, news conferences, articles and opinion columns in real time so that deceivers, miscommunicators and propagandists will no longer be able to blur the lines between facts and misdirection.
This means that it is not only technology that is determinative. I expect that the innovations will include non-technological ideas but then also those using technology. For example, some work I have seen suggests that it is possible to counter fake news if there can be a trusted group of verifiers composed of sincere fact-seekers from the two opposing camps who are prepared to meet face-to-face to discuss or to confirm facts.
There is social capital, there is technology and there is face-to-face encounter. These will continue to expand to assure that people can rely upon the established media, social media and websites are legitimate. People will demand accuracy and value in their consumption of information.
This will come in formal and informal conduits. Truth and veracity will be honored and strengthened following the current difficult period of exploitation of facts. The public deserves and will demand no less. This will force us to revisit the current absolutist interpretation of the First Amendment in the U. Speech amplified by technology e. As the legal framework will evolve to protect legitimate speech, tools will be developed to help disclose information sources and uncover information manipulation.
From greater civic engagement to the possibility of new digital voting systems, a number of these experts predict in the next 10 years there will be changes in how the public is able to interact and engage.
Many expect activism to play a large role in the coming years, including activities in international forums and activism within multinational and multi-stakeholder groups. Technology will make governments and corporations more responsive to the people, even if it is just the result of politicians and executives acting out of self-interest.
But this number will improve as many governments will reduce the digital divide. Osvaldo Larancuent. I do think government and corporations can be pressured to respond to widespread, bottom-up social activism and widespread changes in citizen and consumer behavior. I know for example that social and civic innovations will improve education and training including on information security awareness across cities, communities, regions and states.
Because that ethos for technology entrepreneurs is increasingly recognized as the only way many people will expect firms offering technology innovations to approach them: humbly and with a broader social mission and accounting not just as a corporate social responsibility afterthought, but as a core value of the products and companies themselves.
New tools will be available to improve social and civic participation through innovation. As we have seen in recent years, different civic groups and hacktivists have stressed the need for governments to hear the needs and wants of populations through digital but general-purpose tools. So, there are opportunities for people to use more-specialized tools to improve democratic participation and to channel responses from politicians and democratic institutions to citizens.
And the skills and competences of people will improve as more knowledge will be available to reach well-being by society in general. People will become more aware about the social implications coming from technology and demand effective actions from governmental bodies to address them.
In my view, technology will be used as a way to empower people and demand effective solutions from the government. On the other hand, in authoritarian countries, I expect exactly the opposite.
In these countries, I do not see a bright future. Maybe technology will be used to undermine human rights creating a dystopian scenario. New apps may also facilitate processes of direct democracy by making it easier for voters to participate in participatory budgeting processes.
Of course, technology may also prevent the emergence of social and civic innovation. I am hopeful that legislators and regulators will work to mitigate the vulnerabilities associated with technological disruption in the workplace. Many potential solutions are readily available, but at the moment remain politically fraught.
The threats posed by digital labor platforms that undermine labor standards can be mitigated by implementing laws and regulations that guarantee all workers a fair wage and access to health care and other benefits already available to full-time employees. Societies can also mitigate the disparate impact of algorithmic decision-making systems on the most vulnerable workers by updating and enforcing existing anti-discrimination legislation.
Given ongoing political gridlock at the federal level, much-needed policy interventions are most likely to arise at the state and local levels. Still, technology is the easy factor in the success formula. I also expect to see new legislative and normative tools that protect netizens and even nation-states in cyberspace.
Tech can evolve quickly, and we need to be faster in how we adapt. It will not help for a resident of California to influence public transport policy in London although the Californian may have good ideas for London, which it is useful to share. Similarly, online identities of those participating should be transparent and linked to real-world people.
When decision-making is widened beyond just elected representatives , then all those participating need to be accountable — as they would expect elected representatives to be. Chrissy Zellman. Many of these experts maintain that people are able to connect easily regardless of geographic distance in the current moment, and they expect that the power of this reality will increase in the future.
The internet has opened doors for people to learn of issues faced by others around the world or around the corner. No longer restricted by proximity, people can provide emotional support, financial aid, political advocacy and much more for others around the world without leaving their own home.
Experts expect that social innovations in this realm will continue to bring people together. One particularly likely result of this will be the creation of significantly more decentralized social and civic innovations. Whereas the social and civic innovations of the past have relied on local communities, technology can allow for the connection of people with similar needs across local, state and even national boundaries.
A commons-oriented management of shared resources is one of the political components that will be needed. The internet provides an example, including many failures, of how to manage globally a resource that started as a sort of commons but quickly enabled property rights to arise.
They coexist, even if roughly. I expect to see a differentiated approach. From a developing or middle development country point of view, there is room for spontaneous, issue-oriented, temporary campaigns that may give rise to broader social movements and even parties that will better represent and solve problems. We are wasting valuable time for humankind when we focus on technology and platforms, or even in privacy and control over data, and not on conduct, a whole chain of conduct from the active subject of a possible manipulation to the harms suffered by others and society as a consequence of manipulation and other abuses.
The population of the internet has grown exponentially since the early days of Slashdot, but civic responsibility in the digital world is both possible and effective.
It is symbiotic with a sense of civic responsibility in the real world and the satisfaction that engenders. None of this will happen unless the people who believe in their causes and neighbourhoods — online and offline — come together and activate. Four billion people are now connected to the same infrastructure, the internet, that we the science and technology community put in place just decades ago. This is creating the conditions for an explosion of open creativity and innovation never seen before.
A huge wave of labs of all kinds living labs, fablabs, social labs, edulabs, innovation spaces, even policy labs is emerging as the new kind of groups and communities of the digital era. We are moving from the net to the lab. On the horizon, many of these labs will gather and agree in generating the first universal innovation ecosystems in regions and countries. Besides that, technology and expert groups continuously attempt to attract users to their field so they can contribute or become interested in topics where typically citizenship does not excel as in the legal or technologic fields of knowledge.
It is highly likely that such trends will continue. What we can be sure of is that, used responsibly, digital technologies will and must enable social and civic innovation. We need to accept that as innovations occur, they will as quickly become redundant. Civic innovation will occur mostly in the political, economic and human-rights domains. They will see ways that this can benefit them; these will include marketing. I see an influx of this — use of social media for financial purposes.
Not all are looking to improve financially, social groups and charities are also using innovative tools. I personally see new groups emerging daily and ease of access to join these groups.
Several tools are in use and more are being created. I see that this will improve and spread widely in the future. Local data needs to be seen as a common, pool resource. Where that occurs, communities will have the capacity to learn or innovate their way forward.
So far, smart city systems are being set up to appropriate and commercialize individual and community data. So far, communities are not waking up to the realization that a capacity they need is being stolen from them before they have it.
Many experts predicted significant medical advancements in the next decade. They expect innovations in every realm of physical and mental health. They foresee change coming for the health care industry and health care professionals, and they expect advances in the ways in which individuals are able to care for themselves.
Two technologies in particular that are promoted in public conversations as causing mental and emotional harm are social media and smartphones. However, both of these technologies grew out of and thrived because of the human need for connection.
Social media were developed at a time when people were feeling especially disconnected to their communities, families and friends — likely due to not just increased geographic mobility, but also economic pressures and global stressors such as protracted war in the Middle East. The visibility of communication online and through the use of smartphones has highlighted, more publicly, difficulties in interpersonal interactions that existed well before the advent of these technologies.
Plus, some of the uses of these technologies have promoted unhealthy habits, especially by people who were predisposed to have psychological and physical health issues.
For instance, a person who was depressed could go online to engage with others and feel more connected. However, another person with similar depressive symptomology could use social technologies to further a more negative view of themselves and their life circumstances, for instance.
We have seen a shift toward trying to mitigate the impact of less-healthy forms of technology use. We will likely continue to see more innovation in this space as we continue to home in on which approaches to technology positively or negatively impact mental and physical well-being.
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J China Hydrol 35 3 — J Chin Soil Water Conserv 35 3 — Kim ES, Choi HI A method of flood severity assessment for predicting local flood hazards in small ungauged catchments.
Plateau Meteorol 26 4 — Liao M Application of Doppler radar in early warning of mountain flood disasters. J Agric Catastrophol 2 4 — Nieland C, Mushtaq S The effectiveness and need for flash flood warning systems in a regional inland city in Australia. Yangtze River 44 13 :5—9. Saito H, Matsuyama H Probable hourly precipitation and soil water index for yr recurrence interval over the Japanese Archipelago.
SOLA — Water — Eng Geol — Hydrol Earth Syst Sci — Yucel I Assessment of a flash flood event using different precipitation datasets. Zi L, Yang W, Yuan Y, Qiu H Experimental study of forecasting and early-warning technology for mountain torrent disasters based on rainfall threshold.
Yangtze River 46 11 — Download references. We also would like to thank the handling editor as well as the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments which considerably improved this paper. You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar. Correspondence to Changjun Liu. Reprints and Permissions. Liu, C. Nat Hazards 92, — Download citation.
Received : 28 July Accepted : 04 January Published : 21 April Issue Date : June Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:. Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative. Skip to main content. Search SpringerLink Search. Download PDF. Abstract This paper summarizes the main flash flood early-warning systems of America, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan China and discusses their advantages and disadvantages.
Introduction With changes in the global climate, the frequency of extreme precipitation and flash flood disasters is increasing. Number and casualties of flash floods in China. Full size image. Research status of flash flood early-warning index Over the past decade, worldwide developments have been made to improve flash flood forecasts, including remotely sensed data, flow forecast models and methods, and forecast uncertainty estimates Hapuarachchi et al.
Table 1 Principles, methods, and advantages of flash flood early-warning indexes Full size table. Table 2 Current early-warning index calculation methods Full size table.
Causes and characteristics of flash floods in China Factors that cause disastrous flash floods are associated with both nature and the society. Methods for flash flood early warning in China Methods and achievements in the first stage — During —, China started the implementation of flash flood prevention, and gradually established nationwide county level flash flood monitoring and early-warning platforms in counties.
Flowchart of the calculation of rainfall early-warning index. Flowchart of the calculation of real-time dynamic warning index. Weather Forecast 29 2 — Article Google Scholar Diakakis M A method for flood hazard mapping based on basin morphometry: application in two catchments in Greece. Hydrol Process — Article Google Scholar He B, Li Q Exploration on present situation and developing tendency of mountain flood disaster prevention technology.
Nat Hazard —12 Google Scholar Yucel I Assessment of a flash flood event using different precipitation datasets. Yangtze River 46 11 —14 Google Scholar Download references. View author publications.
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